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Prediction for CME (2021-10-09T07:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-10-09T07:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17922/-1
CME Note: The CME is a full asymmetrical halo in SOHO LASCO C2 and C3. The associated eruption followed the M1.6 class flare from AR 2882 and was characterized by significant dimming, an EUV wave and post-eruptive arcades seen starting after 2021-10-09T06:33Z mostly to the West from AR 2882 in SDO AIA 193, 304, 171 and in EUVI A 195 starting at 2021-10-09T06:33Z. The CME arrival (a clear shock) is characterized by a sudden simultaneous jump of magnetic field (Bz to almost -14 nT), solar wind speed to 450 km/s from 350 km/s and ion density to above 25 cm^-3. Bz was intermittently in the negative for a few hours and B total reached the maximum of 16 nT.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-10-12T01:46Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-10-11T11:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings:
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CME input parameters TBD
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes: from Forecast Discussion Issued: 2021 Oct 10 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
...Region 2882 (N17W01,
Dho/beta-gamma) produced an M1/2b flare at 09/0638 UTC. Associated with
the event was a full-halo CME signature which was first observed in
SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 09/0712 UTC. A Type II radio sweep
(608 km/s), Type IV radio sweep, and Tenflare (430 sfu) were also
observed with the event. Analysis and WSA/Enlil modeling determined the
CME to arrive in the near Earth environment near midday on 11 Oct. 

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to be mostly quiet, with isolated
periods of unsettled possible from potential coronal hole influence,
on 10 Oct. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storms are likely on 11 Oct due to the
arrival of the 09 CME. Active levels to G1 (Minor) storm levels are
likely on 12 Oct with lingering CME influence.

Lead Time: 62.30 hour(s)
Difference: 14.77 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2021-10-09T11:28Z

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